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Convencidos Pero Equivocados: El Arte De Desafiar Nuestras Creencias Y Opiniones Para Mejorar Nuestra Vida - PDF Libro



Convencidos pero equivocados pdf download: A guide to avoid illusions in everyday life


Introduction


Have you ever been convinced that you were right about something, only to find out later that you were wrong? Have you ever made a decision based on your intuition or gut feeling, only to regret it later? Have you ever seen patterns or connections where there were none, or missed important ones that were there?




convencidos pero equivocados pdf download


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If you answered yes to any of these questions, don't worry. You are not alone. We all fall victim to illusions and cognitive biases that distort our perception of reality and influence our reasoning and decision making. These are not signs of stupidity or irrationality; they are natural tendencies that have evolved over time to help us cope with a complex and uncertain world. However, these tendencies can also lead us astray, especially in modern times when we are exposed to more information, choices, and challenges than ever before. That's why we need to be aware of them and learn how to avoid them. One way to do that is to read Convencidos pero equivocados, a book by Thomas Gilovich and Jesús Ortiz Pérez del Molino, published in 2009 by Editorial Milrazones. The book is a guide to recognize illusions in everyday life and avoid cognitive biases that can lead us to make bad decisions. Gilovich is a professor of psychology at Cornell University who has been studying human judgment for over three decades. Ortiz Pérez del Molino is a journalist who has worked for several Spanish newspapers and magazines. Together, they have written a clear, engaging, and accessible book that explains how we think, why we err, and what we can do about it. In this article, we will summarize some of the main ideas from the book and provide some examples of illusions and cognitive biases that affect our judgment. We will also show you how you can download the pdf version of the book for free at the end. How illusions shape our perception of reality


The illusion of validity


For example, we may believe that we are good at detecting lies, even though research shows that most people are not better than chance at doing so. We may believe that we can predict the outcome of a sports game, even though there are many factors that are beyond our control or knowledge. We may believe that we can explain why something happened, even though we may be ignoring alternative causes or confounding variables. The illusion of validity can lead us to make errors in judgment and decision making, such as ignoring contradictory evidence, overestimating our abilities, or being too confident in our predictions. How can we overcome this illusion and seek evidence that challenges our assumptions? One way is to adopt a scientific mindset and test our hypotheses with experiments and observations. Another way is to seek feedback from others who may have different perspectives or expertise. A third way is to consider the opposite of what we believe and see if we can find reasons or evidence to support it. The illusion of control


The illusion of control is the tendency to believe that we have more control over events and outcomes than we actually do. We tend to overestimate our influence on external factors and underestimate the role of chance and randomness. For example, we may believe that we can influence the outcome of a lottery by choosing certain numbers, even though the odds are the same for any combination. We may believe that we can affect the performance of a team by wearing a lucky shirt or cheering loudly, even though these actions have no causal effect. We may believe that we can prevent bad things from happening by following certain rituals or superstitions, even though they have no logical connection. The illusion of control can lead us to make errors in judgment and decision making, such as taking unnecessary risks, wasting time and resources on ineffective actions, or blaming ourselves or others for things that are beyond our control. The illusion of causality


The illusion of causality is the tendency to believe that there is a causal relationship between two events or variables when there is none or when the relationship is weak or spurious. We tend to see patterns and connections where there are none, or confuse correlation with causation. For example, we may believe that eating ice cream causes crime, even though the two variables are only correlated because they both increase in summer. We may believe that vaccines cause autism, even though there is no scientific evidence to support this claim and many studies to refute it. We may believe that our actions cause certain outcomes, even though they may be due to coincidence or other factors. The illusion of causality can lead us to make errors in judgment and decision making, such as drawing false conclusions, making unwarranted generalizations, or engaging in magical thinking. a curious and humble attitude and be willing to change our minds when we encounter new or better evidence. Another way is to expose ourselves to diverse and credible sources of information and viewpoints. A third way is to actively seek out and test alternative hypotheses and explanations. The availability bias


The availability bias is the tendency to judge the frequency or probability of events or outcomes based on how easily they come to mind or how vivid they are. We tend to overestimate the likelihood of events or outcomes that are more salient, memorable, or recent, and underestimate the likelihood of events or outcomes that are less salient, memorable, or recent. For example, we may judge that flying is more dangerous than driving, even though the statistics show otherwise, because plane crashes are more sensational and widely reported than car accidents. We may judge that shark attacks are more common than they actually are, because they are more dramatic and scary than other causes of death. We may judge that our performance on a task is better than it actually is, because we remember our successes more than our failures. The availability bias can lead us to make errors in judgment and decision making, such as being influenced by anecdotes or emotions, ignoring base rates or probabilities, or being overconfident or optimistic. The anchoring bias


The anchoring bias is the tendency to rely too much on the first piece of information that we encounter or that is given to us when making judgments or decisions. We tend to adjust our estimates or opinions based on this initial anchor, but not sufficiently enough to reflect the true value or quality. For example, we may judge that a product is more expensive or valuable than it actually is, because we see a high price tag or a discount offer. We may judge that a person is more competent or trustworthy than they actually are, because we hear a positive trait or a recommendation. We may judge that a task is more difficult or easy than it actually is, because we are given a high or low expectation or goal. The anchoring bias can lead us to make errors in judgment and decision making, such as being influenced by irrelevant or misleading information, paying too much or too little for something, or setting unrealistic or suboptimal goals. Conclusion


In this article, we have summarized some of the main ideas from Convencidos pero equivocados, a book by Thomas Gilovich and Jesús Ortiz Pérez del Molino, published in 2009 by Editorial Milrazones. The book is a guide to recognize illusions and cognitive biases in everyday life and avoid them. We have seen how illusions shape our perception of reality and how cognitive biases distort our reasoning and decision making. We have also seen how we can overcome these tendencies and improve our judgment and choices. Recognizing illusions and cognitive biases is not easy, but it is essential for living a more rational, informed, and fulfilling life. By being aware of them and learning how to avoid them, we can reduce errors, increase accuracy, and enhance creativity. If you are interested in learning more about this topic, we invite you to download the pdf version of the book for free. You can find it here: https://openlibrary.org/books/OL37055119M/Convencidos_pero_equivocados. You will need to create an account and borrow the book for 14 days. We hope you enjoyed this article and found it useful. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to share them with us. FAQs


What is the difference between an illusion and a cognitive bias?


An illusion is a false or distorted perception of reality that results from the way our senses or brain process information. A cognitive bias is a systematic error in thinking that results from the way our mind interprets or evaluates information. What are some other examples of illusions and cognitive biases?


Some other examples of illusions are the halo effect, the hindsight bias, the framing effect, the placebo effect, and the self-serving bias. Some other examples of cognitive biases are the sunk cost fallacy, the bandwagon effect, the gambler's fallacy, the confirmation bias, and the Dunning-Kruger effect. Why do we have illusions and cognitive biases?


We have illusions and cognitive biases because they are adaptive mechanisms that help us cope with a complex and uncertain world. They help us simplify information, make quick decisions, avoid cognitive overload, and maintain a positive self-image. However, they can also lead us to make mistakes or miss opportunities. How can we measure our susceptibility to illusions and cognitive biases?


We can measure our susceptibility to illusions and cognitive biases by taking tests or quizzes that assess our knowledge, skills, or preferences. For example, we can take the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to measure our ability to override intuitive but incorrect answers. We can take the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) to measure our personality type and preferences. We can take the Implicit Association Test (IAT) to measure our implicit attitudes and stereotypes. How can we reduce the negative effects of illusions and cognitive biases?


We can reduce the negative effects of illusions and cognitive biases by being aware of them and learning how to avoid them. We can also use strategies such as logic, critical thinking, scientific methods, feedback, evaluation, probability, statistics, heuristics, rules of thumb, counterfactual thinking, curiosity, humility, diversity, and creativity.


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